EURUSD 13.09.2013

Hi all,


I'd like to update my view on EURUSD. You can find my prev. post on EURUSD here http://supamanfx.blogspot.com/2013/09/eurusd-11092013.html

And the LT view on EURUSD here: http://supamanfx.blogspot.com/2013/09/eurusd-lt-11092013.html

Price is trapped in a range as you can see on the chart. Bearish divergence still intact signal possible end to ST up cycle from 1.3103. Current key support @ 1.3255, I'm bearish below this level

http://d.pr/i/q5rE - H1 chart

Also worth mentioning, EURUSD printed a daily spinning top candle, suggesting a halt in upside momentum. A break of aforementioned 1.3255 would be early signal the top is in place.

http://d.pr/i/zTqG - Daily chart

Please give your comment on this. Thank you


Supaman_fx

Duc

GBPUSD 13.09.2013

Hi all,


I'd like to update my view on GBPUSD. You can find my prev. post on Cable here
http://supamanfx.blogspot.com/2013/09/gbpusd-11092013.html

http://bit.ly/15ZFZsN - Weekly chart. Coming near to triangle boundary, now acting as resistance, and previous support now turning resistance @ 1.58255

http://bit.ly/18Twf6F - H4 chart

http://bit.ly/1au47c8 - H1 chart

So far, "hypothetical" wave I of Ending Diagonal is larger than Wave III, Wave IV larger than Wave II, and bearish divergence make me expect final top would be achieved below 1.58544

I'd consider breakdown of 1.5754 as early bearish signal. Only below 1.5684 would make me turn strongly bearish on Cable and conclude the top is in place.

This wave count is invalidate above 1.58544

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UPDATED: Cable has put a spinning top candle, meaning a halt in upside momentum. More downside movement and the break of aforementioned 1.5754 & 1.5684

http://d.pr/i/lJdk - daily chart


Please give your comment on this. Thank you


Supaman_fx

Duc

EURJPY 12.09.2013

Hi all,


I'd like to share with you my view on EURJPY. The EW Count on H4 courtesy http://theelliottwavesufer.blogspot.com/. I'd like to take this chance to thank EWS for his excellent work.

EURJPY After breaking above the triangle resistance & prev. high @ 132.40, has confirm to resume uptrend on Daily. Currently, this currency pair is revisiting "Psychological" level 132.00 and retesting broken TL. Expect new buyers to jump in @ 132.00-132.10 area.

http://d.pr/i/jFBy - H4 zoom-out

http://d.pr/i/EBnm - H4 zoom-in

http://d.pr/i/2wMq - H1 chart


Please give your comment on this. Thank you

Supaman_fx

Duc

USDJPY 12.09.2013

Hi all,


I'd like to update my view on USDJPY. You can find my prev. post on USDJPY here http://supamanfx.blogspot.com/2013/09/usdjpy-11092013.html

http://d.pr/i/N1SI - H4 chart

http://d.pr/i/QcLa - H1 chart

http://d.pr/i/FS94 - M30 chart zoom-out

http://d.pr/i/58eS - M30 chart zoom-in

I've relabeled wave count on m30 chart. The movement from 98.52 to 100.60 is in 5 waves, following by correction to fill the Monday gap. Expect wave iii purple of Wave III purple on the move


Please give your comment on this. Thank you

Supaman_fx

Duc

EURUSD LT 11.09.2013

Hi all,


I'd like to share with you my LT view on EURUSD

IMHO, this currency pair is in (e) wave of intermediate triangle Wave (B)

http://d.pr/i/ONFi - Weekly chart zoom-out

http://d.pr/i/zcd - Weekly chart zoom-in

http://d.pr/i/jxVw - Daily chart

IMO, EURUSD should be in a strong downleg toward 1.2500-1.2250, and would be bottoming around the end of 2013. Then it would make a strong rally toward 1.4000 (even 1.4500 in case USD getting smoked) to finish wave (e) of Intermediate triangle Wave (B) mentioned above. (See Weekly chart)

Please give your comment on this. Thank you.


Supaman_fx

Duc

EURUSD 11.09.2013

Hi all,


I'd like to update my view on EURUSD. You can find my previous post on EURUSD here http://supamanfx.blogspot.com/2013/09/eurusd-10092013.html

I suspect the correction ABC has come to an end @ 50 back retracement. Bearish divergence signal a possible change in direction.

Key Support lies @ 1.32293, below this level would confirm downside acceleration. 

http://d.pr/i/Ix3a - H1 chart 

Alt. scenario: ED w5 of C http://d.pr/i/S72K - H1 chart

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UPDATED: As price action unveil itself, wave iv of C is more complex than expected. I'd like to update my view on EURUSD

http://d.pr/i/aWbd - H4 chart, keep in mind price is at horizontal resistance zone (Gray area)

http://d.pr/i/9DYR - H1 chart, Fibo 61.8% is darn close. Bearish divergence signal Bull team running out of gas.

http://d.pr/i/3wBq - M30 chart

Key Support lies @ 1.3253, I'm bearish below this level


Please give your comment on this. Thank you


Supaman_fx

Duc

GBPUSD 11.09.2013

Hi all,


I'd like to update my view on Cable. You could find my prev. post on Cable here http://supamanfx.blogspot.com/2013/09/gbpusd-10092013.html

Look like the "Fat Lady" is moving as expected with wave iv of ED in place @ 1.5685. Expect the "Fat Lady" to top soon - might be within 1 day.

Key Support @ 1.5685. I'm bearish below this level.

http://d.pr/i/sRx1 - H1 Chart 

Please give your comment on this. Thank you


Supaman_fx

Duc

Crude Oil 11.09.2013

Hi all,


I'd like to share my view on Crude Oil

IMHO, Crude is cooking a big triangle A-B-C-D-E on Daily chart. Wave E of triangle is also a smaller degree a-b-c-d-e triangle!!! Honestly, Crude chart took me a while to figure out this duo-triangle. Hope you guys enjoy the chart :D

http://d.pr/i/xwKE - Daily chart zoom-out

http://d.pr/i/TVnJ - Daily chart zoom-in

http://d.pr/i/mf3n - H4 chart. IMO, Crude is forming an Ending Diagonal Wave 5. Expect an up swing to maximum 114.10 to finish small wave iii within the Ending Diagonal within next 2 days. Key support on H4 chart is 104.21. Market should hold above this level.


Alt. scenario http://d.pr/i/Y43S - H4 chart


Please give your comment on this. Thank you


Supaman_fx
Duc

USDJPY 11.09.2013

Hi all,


I would like to share my view on USDJPY. (You can find my previous post on USDJPY here http://supamanfx.blogspot.com/2013/09/usdjpy-10092013.html)

USDJPY rally nicely today, showing clear sign of strength, break above Monday high @ 100.10 and Friday high (pre-NFP high) @ 100.22. Monday gap mentioned in my previous post hold nicely, showing strong support and indeed was a "Breakaway Gap". The market possibly in "third of a third of a third", which means we should expect a lot more upside strength coming up next.

http://d.pr/i/4mlo - M30 chart

http://d.pr/i/EI2x - H4 chart 

http://d.pr/i/MilZ - Daily chart

I'm looking higher in this pair, targeting 105.00-106.00 as mentioned in previous post. (Weekly chart)

Please give your comment on this. Thank you


Supaman_fx
Duc

AUDUSD 10.09.2013

Hi all,

I'd like to share with you my view on AUDUSD

IMO, this currency pair is approaching some serious resistance on H4 chart. The channel top comes in handy with equal projection @ 0.9265-0.9275 area.

http://d.pr/i/oXTA

Since wave B is a deep correction of wave A (H4 chart), I categorize the whole ABC correction as a FLAT 3-3-5. Now we are in the end of Wave C (5 wave). More over, taking a closer look @ lower timeframe chart, I could spot interesting wave relationship in C wave.


On H1 chart, bearish divergence signals Bull team is losing breath and possible wave C is coming to an end. The channel in the chart is EW channel
http://d.pr/i/bNjc

M30 chart is what I find the most interesting chart. IMO, this currency pair is developing an Ending Diagonal, with Wave i overlap Wave iv. To be an ED, wave i > wave iii > wave v. Therefore, if market break above 0.92909, this count is invalidated. http://d.pr/i/nzI1

I'd wait for a bearish signal around 0.9265-0.9290 area to go short this pair.

Please give your comment on this. Thank you

Supaman_fx
Duc

EURNZD 10.09.2013

Hi all :) 

I'd like to share with you my view on EURNZD 

  

IMHO, EURNZD experienced a "Running Flat" Wave IV, with a-b-c 3-3-5 structure. wave c is almost equal wave a within Running Flat. Overall, wave IV correct 38.2 of Wave III. More importantly, in this scenario, we clearly see divergence between wave III and V - very typical for impulsive wave structure, i consider this divergence as confirmation for this count. 

http://d.pr/i/NnMx

So IMO, EURNZD is correcting the whole advance from 1.5080. In term of price magnitude, market has retraced 38.2%, down to previous wave IV level - an ideal area to end correction. But in term of time magnitude, 8 down days are not enough to correct 100 days advance. So i assume the decline 1.7275 is the A leg within bigger A-B-C zigzag correction


Please comment on this. Thank you. 

Supaman_fx

Duc

(written on 08.09.2013 - 2 days ago. Repost) 

USDJPY 10.09.2013

Hi all,

I'd like to share my view on USDJPY, one of the most heavily-traded currency pair

What used to be a $4-trillion-a-day market is now a $5.3-trillion-a-day one. A new Bank for International Settlements survey found that, 

"Foreign-exchange trading surged to an average $5.3 trillion a day in April 2013, boosted by greater [Japanese] yen volumes.

“Trading in the yen jumped the most, rising by 63% since the 2010 survey. Turnover in the dollar/yen pair rose by about 70%.”

Back in April the yen was near the end of its 7-month losing streak against the U.S. dollar. This week, the yen weakened again, pushing USD/JPY higher.

http://d.pr/i/XVlN - Daily chart 

In impulsive wave sequence, triangle wave formation is very typical for wave 4. In this wave count, I suggest market has finished a triangle a-b-c-d-e wave 4. And impulsive wave 5 is expected to be in the go. If wave 5 is not truncated, I'm looking for this wave 5 to break extreme point of previous wave 3 @ 103.73 (22.05.2013), to reach target of 105.00-106.00

http://d.pr/i/tPxz - Weekly chart

Taking a closer look @ lower timeframe

H4 chart http://d.pr/i/u7PD

M30 chart http://d.pr/i/jWYI - In Monday Asia session, USDJPY gapped up. I suspect this is a "break-away" gap, which implies bullish momentum. If market breakdown decisively below this gap, I'd take it as early signal to question Bull team and stand aside the market for more information. 

Please give your comment on this. Thank you

Supaman_fx

Duc

GBPUSD 10.09.2013

Hi all,

I'd like to share my view on Cable. IMHO, I view this market is close to an important top. I put the reasoning in the picture. Please have a look

http://d.pr/i/9O73 - H4

http://d.pr/i/kXkq - H1

Please give your comment on this. Thank you

Supaman_fx

Duc

EURUSD 10.09.2013

Hi all, 

I'd like to share my view on EURUSD

IMO 5 wave impulsive from Key high 1.3450 to 1.3105 has been in place. Currently this pair is correcting in a-b-c. Possible area to end retracement @ 1.3300-1.3320.

http://d.pr/i/jEwK 

Please give your comment on this. Thank you.

Supaman_fx

Duc